TOURISM UNDER CLIMATE RISK: HOW EXTREME WEATHER EXPERIENCES SHAPE RISK PERCEPTION, DESTINATION TRUST, AND REVISIT INTENTIONS IN SKARDU, GILGIT-BALTISTAN

Abstract

This study aims to develop a quantitative analysis that would capture the direct influence of the first-hand experience of tourists to extreme weather conditions on their risk perception, destination trust and revisit intention in Skardu, Gilgit-Baltistan region. Based on Protection Motivation Theory and Stimulus Organism Response, external factors extreme weather experience and risk perception are followed by internal and behavioral factors cognitive evaluation, such as destination trust, revisit intention. This study uses a cross sectional survey method and analysis method used in this study is hypothesis testing with the approach of structural equation modeling, with respondents as domestic and foreign tourists who have visited Skardu. The quantitative analysis has 420 cases. There is a positive relationship between extreme weather experience and risk perception, and a negative relationship between extreme weather experience and destination trust and between risk perception and destination trust. Perceived risk has a negative relationship with revisit intention, while destination trust has a positive relationship with revisit intention, partially mediate the negative relationship between perceived risk and revisit intention. Sequential mediation also suggests that weather experience may also indirectly be associated with revisit intention through the process of risk appraisal and trust construction. Climate-risk behaviour in a high-altitude tourist destination is introduced and recommendations are put forward for warning communication, road and weather information, crisis response and building trust of the destination in Skardu. Finally, the article concludes that the adaptation of mountain tourism to climate change cannot be considered a purely infrastructural issue but is also related to perception on the side of tourists and management on the side of destinations.